Josie B. Quiban*

Department of Information Technology, Palompon Institute of Technology, Leyte, Philippines

 

Download Citation: |
Download PDF


ABSTRACT

This paper examines the rate of Internet diffusion among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations during 2001-2018. This study utilizes the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) 2001-2018 dataset. The bass model was used to estimate and forecast the Internet potential adopters, innovators, and imitators in determining the rate and patterns of internet diffusion and adoption across ASEAN countries. The results showed that the Internet diffusion rate among ASEAN countries is well characterized by an S-shape curve. The predicted diffusion curves provide evidence that high-income countries have higher diffusion rates comparing the upper-middle and lower-income countries in the ASEAN. The forecast results show that the country with the highest inflection point is also the country that becomes the least in the Internet diffusion and adoption process. The results also indicate that among ASEAN countries, four have reached their peak of adoption before 2018, two have reached their saturation point, and one is continuously dominating since the introduction of the Internet.


Keywords: ASEAN, Bass model, Internet adoption, Internet adoption rate, S-shaped curve.


Share this article with your colleagues

 


REFERENCES

  1. Andres, L., Cuberes, D., Diouf, M., Serebesky, T. 2010. The diffusion of the internet: A cross-country analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 34, 323–340.

  2. Bass, F.M. 1969. A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management Science, 15, 215–227.

  3. Fan, Z.P., Che, Y.J., Chen, Z.Y. 2017. Product sales forecasting using online reviews and historical sales data: A method combining the Bass model and sentiment analysis. Journal of Business Research, 74, 90–100.

  4. Huang, T., Sun, B. 2016. The impact of the internet on global industry: New evidence of internet measurement. Research in International Business and Finance, 37, 93–112.

  5. International telecommunications union (ITU) (n.d.), 2019. from Measuring the information society.: https://www.itu.int/pub/D-IND-ICTOI

  6. International telecommunications union (ITU). (n.d.), 2019. from World Information Society Report 2007: Beyond WSIS. https://www.itu.int/osg/spu/publicaions/worldinformationsociety/2007

  7. Jha, A., Saha, D. 2020. Forecasting and analyzing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 152, DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119885.

  8. Mahajan, V., Bass, F.M., Muller, E. 1990. New product diffusion models in marketing: A review and directions for research. Journal of Marketing, 54, 1–26.

  9. Maureal, Z., Lapates, J.M., Dumandan, M.S., Vicar, V.B., Gaylo, D.N. 2020. Adopted bass diffusion model for the spread of COVID-19 in the Philippines: Implications to interventions and flattening the curve. International Journal of Innovation, Creativity and Change, 14, 1418–1437.

  10. Na, H.S., Hwang, J., Kim, H. 2020. Digital content as a fast internet diffusion factor: Focusing on the fixed broadbant Internet. Information Development, 36, 97–111.

  11. Ningsih, C., Choi, Y.J. 2018. An effect of internet penetration on income iequality is southeast Asian countries. in 22nd Biennial Conference of the International Telecommunications Society (ITS): Beyond the Boundaries: Challenges for Business, Policy and Society. Seoul, Korea.

  12. Orbach, Y. 2016. Parametric analysis of the bass model. Innovative Marketing. 12, 29–40.

  13. Penard, T., Pousing, N., Makoko, B., Bertrand, G., Piaptie, T. 2015. Internet adoption and usage patterns in africa: Evidence from Cameroon. Technology in Society, 42, 71–80.

  14. Prajaknate, P. 2017. Information communication technologies (ICT) for education in ASEAN: Can we close the digital divide? Communication, Culture and Change in ASEAN 2, DOI:10.1007/978-981-10-2815-1_6.

  15. Quiban, J.B. 2020. Internet diffusion rate among ASEAN countries. Journal of Innovative Technology Convergence, 2, 1–8.

  16. Stier, S. 2017. Temporal patterns in technology adoption. Internet diffusion and regime type: Temporal patterns in technology adoption. Telecommunications Policy, 41, 25–34.

  17. Stoycheff, E., Nisbet, E. 2014. Whats the bandwidth for democracy? Deconstructing Internet Penetration and Citizen Attitudes About Governance. Political Communication, 31, 628–646.

  18. Vu, K.M. 2017. ICT diffusion and production in ASEAN countries: Patterns, performance, and policy directions. Telecommunications Policy, 41, 962–977.

  19. World bank. (n.d.), 2019. from world development indicators & global development finance. databank.worldbank.org: https://www.databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

  20. Wunnava, P., Leiter, D. 2009. Determinants of intercountry diffusion rates. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68, 413–426.

  21. Zhang, X. 2013. Income disparity and digital divide: The Internet consumption model and cross-country analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 37, 515–529.


ARTICLE INFORMATION

Received: 2021-01-29
Revised: 2021-04-05
Accepted: 2021-05-11
Available Online: 2021-06-21


Cite this article:

Quiban, J.B. 2021. Rate of internet diffusion among ASEAN countries using bass model.International Journal of Applied Science and Engineering, 18, 2021035. https://doi.org/10.6703/IJASE.202106_18(4).002

  Copyright The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited.

Other people also read ...